Perth is the strongest capital city market in Australia heading into the second quarter of 2026. Dwelling values are up 24.3% over the year to March, vacancy sits at 0.5%, and the major banks are still forecasting mid to high single-digit growth for the rest of the year.
The question isn’t whether Perth has run. It’s whether the tailwinds still support buying here at current prices, or whether this cycle has moved past the point where the numbers work for investors.
Here’s what the data says.
Where Perth sits right now
REIWA’s latest monthly data (released 20 April 2026) puts Perth’s median house sale price at around $845,000 with a weekly median rent of $700. That’s a gross yield of roughly 4.3% on houses. Units sit near a $595,000 median with rents around $670 a week, giving gross yields closer to 5.9%.
Cotality’s Home Value Index has Perth’s median dwelling value at $1,017,698 as of March 2026, up 24.3% over the year, 7.3% for the quarter, and 91.2% over five years. The index captures a broader measure than REIWA’s transacted median, but both tell the same story: Perth is leading the country.
Other data points worth anchoring on:
- Vacancy rate: 0.5% (SQM Research, April 2026). Fewer than 1,000 available rentals across the metro
- Days on market: around 14 days for houses (REIWA, April 2026)
- Listings: roughly 40-45% below the five-year average
- Annual growth: houses 24.1%, units 26.1% (Cotality)
Units have actually outpaced houses on growth in this leg of the cycle, which is unusual. It reflects just how stretched house affordability has become relative to the WA median income. When the median house hits $845K in a state where median household income is closer to $120K, buyers at the lower end start hunting units and townhouses instead. That substitution effect is showing up in the numbers.
The other data point worth flagging: sales volumes have held up. REIWA’s weekly snapshots through March 2026 show transaction counts sitting between 800 and 860 per week. In a market where listings are down 40%, transaction volume holding steady means buyers are moving fast when stock does hit. That’s the 14-day median days-on-market in context.
What drove the last cycle
Three things, stacked on top of each other.
The resources sector has been running hot since 2020. Iron ore held up, lithium went vertical, LNG expanded, and critical minerals investment kept flowing in. WA lithium miners alone generated $8.4 billion in sales in 2023-24, with the state supplying close to half of global demand.
Interstate migration followed the jobs. WA posted a net gain of roughly 9,800 residents in the latest ABS period, Perth’s best run in more than a decade, with most of the inflow coming from NSW and Victoria. Greater Perth grew 2.4% over the past year, the highest of any capital city.
And supply never caught up. Construction costs, labour shortages, and a slow approval pipeline kept new builds well below what the population growth required. Listings are still sitting 40% below the five-year average. That gap is what’s propping prices up.
Bank forecasts for 2026
The four majors disagree on how much further Perth has to run, but none of them are calling a correction. The full range sits between roughly 4% and 11% for 2026:
- ANZ: +10.9%
- Westpac: +8.0%
- CBA: +6.0%
- NAB: +3.7%
REIWA’s own forecast is more bullish, calling for 10%+ on houses and 15-20% on units in 2026, which sits at the top of the bank range.
The divergence comes down to two things. Rate cycle assumptions (CBA, Westpac and ANZ see the cash rate holding at 3.85%, NAB sees one more hike) and how much of the migration plus supply shortage is already priced in. The bear case is closer to NAB’s number. The bull case assumes the structural demand keeps grinding against a supply pipeline that can’t respond.
Infrastructure and jobs backdrop
METRONET is effectively done. The Yanchep Line opened in July 2024, the Ellenbrook Line in December 2024, and the Thornlie-Cockburn Link (Perth’s first east-west rail connection) came online in October 2025. The program wrapped with the new Midland Station opening on 22 February 2026, capping roughly 72 kilometres of new rail and 23 new or upgraded stations.
For investors, that means most of the transport uplift in the growth corridors has already happened. The suburbs along the Ellenbrook, Yanchep and Thornlie-Cockburn lines have largely priced it in. Buying now for a “METRONET story” is late.
What’s still coming:
- Perth Airport: $5 billion masterplan, new Qantas domestic terminal and T1 international expansion, completion targeted around 2031
- Resources pipeline: more than $100 billion of new WA resource projects in the planning or early construction phase
- Alkimos Seawater Desalination Plant: under construction, servicing the northern growth corridor
- Westport (Kwinana): long-term container port relocation, still years from completion but relevant for southern corridor land values
The job creation backdrop matters more than any single project. When migration, wages, and resource investment all point the same direction, rental demand and owner-occupier demand both hold up.
Perth investor risks in 2026
The bull case is loud. The risks are worth saying out loud too.
Affordability ceiling is closer than it looks. Perth houses clearing $845K on the REIWA median and units at $595K is no longer a cheap market. First-home buyers using the expanded federal guarantee scheme can still stretch into mid-ring suburbs, but the days of buying a solid house under $500K in a commutable suburb are largely gone.
Yield compression on houses. A 4.3% gross yield on a median Perth house was 5.5% two years ago. Rents have grown, but prices have grown faster. For investors modelling cash flow, Perth houses no longer stand out the way they did in 2023.
Single-industry exposure. Perth is more tied to resources than any other capital. When iron ore or lithium turns, it flows through to jobs, migration, and rental demand faster here than anywhere else. The current commodity cycle looks good for several more years, but concentration is still concentration.
Rate sensitivity at the margin. The federal cash rate sitting at 3.85% (or 4.10% on NAB’s view) isn’t stopping this market, but it’s thinning out the buyer pool at the top end. If the RBA goes again, Perth’s mid-ring may be the first segment to stall.
What we still buy in Perth
Affordable houses in the outer north and south, on land that gives the property somewhere to go. Decent block size for a future granny flat or subdivision, older established stock we can put a cosmetic renovation through, and yields that still cover the holding cost at current rates.
What we avoid: new builds in greenfield estates (oversupply risk and no equity uplift on settlement), off-the-plan apartments (developer risk, no cosmetic reno lever), and anything in the inner ring where the yield math simply doesn’t work for an investment purchase.
The outer-ring rule is simple. The property needs to make sense on yield today, on growth over the next five years, and it needs to give you a reno lever or land lever if the market flattens. Without those three, you’re betting on capital growth alone in a market that’s already run hard. That’s a worse bet in 2026 than it was in 2023.
For the breakdown of specific suburbs still working in the current cycle, see our Perth suburb guide. And if you want to understand why affordable markets continue to outperform premium postcodes in this environment, read affordable vs blue chip.
What this means for the rest of 2026
Perth is still the strongest capital city market in the country, but it’s in a different phase of the cycle to where it was in 2023. Growth is likely to moderate from the mid-20s into the high single digits. Yields will keep compressing on houses and stay attractive on units. The supply shortage isn’t going to fix itself in 2026.
If you’re buying in Perth now, entry price and block quality matter more than they did two years ago. The easy gains are behind us. The structural tailwinds are still there, but margin for error is thinner.
If Perth is outside your budget, regional markets across the eastern states offer alternative entry points with their own tailwinds. If Perth fits and you want someone buying there regularly who knows which streets still work, see our Perth buyers agent page.
This is general information only and not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
If you’re weighing up Perth for your next investment, book a free discovery call.
